A first-year plan built on the aircraft's capability rather than on the market's behaviour will be wrong in the same four places every time. Here are the four.
Assumption 1: that hours build steadily
They do not. Year one is seasonal from the first month, and which month you start in changes your annual total more than anything you do.
An operation that begins in May spends its first high season without a reputation. One that begins in November has demand immediately and no operating history to handle it well.
Plan the first twelve months by season, not as a twelve-month average.
If you can choose, start before a high season rather than into one. The months of low demand are when the mistakes are cheap, and every operation makes them in the first quarter regardless of experience.
Assumption 2: that the aircraft decides the revenue
The field decides more. Drake Bay at 83.5 nautical miles admits generous categories and has many operators. Tortuguero at 53.4 has firm demand and fewer capable aircraft.
Where your category is scarce matters more than how good your category is. The specific aircraft is assigned on confirmation, based on passenger count, baggage and the destination field.
Assumption 3: that the rate is the revenue
We show a "from" price per route; the final fare depends on the date, the group and the baggage, and is confirmed in writing before booking. The operator is paid the full flight at their usual rate: our intermediation is not deducted from what they charge.
Between the quoted rate and your bank account sit positioning, ground time, the jobs that did not fly, and the discount you gave to win the ones that did.
Model contribution per aircraft-day, not rate per hour. A plan built on hourly rates will overstate year one substantially.
Assumption 4: that fixed costs wait
They do not. Hangar, insurance, certificate upkeep and any salaried crew run from day one, including the months before the first booking.
Count the months before revenue as a cost line, because they are the largest one in year one and they appear in no projection.
What a defensible plan looks like
A low-season floor. What you must cover when nothing is flying, and where it comes from.
A route list with the competition named. Which fields, and how many other operators can serve them. A San José–Tamarindo of 97.1 nautical miles is not a plan; it is a line everyone has.
A stated break-even in flights, not in revenue. Flights are countable during the month; revenue is only legible after it.
And one non-tourism source identified, even if not yet won.
Write these four on one page. A plan that does not fit on one page is usually a projection wearing a plan's clothes, and it will not survive contact with a September.
What we can tell you and what we cannot
We can tell you where we receive requests we cannot place — which is a signal about scarcity rather than a forecast.
We cannot tell you what you will fly. Nobody can, and a plan that depends on an intermediary's projection has outsourced the most important assumption in it. Operators we bring on evidence current certification, insurance and fleet documentation before receiving a first assignment.
Frequently asked questions
Do hours build steadily in year one?
No. It is seasonal from the first month, and your start month changes the annual total more than anything else.
What decides revenue more than the aircraft?
The field. Where your category is scarce matters more than how good it is.
What should I model?
Contribution per aircraft-day, not rate per hour. Hourly rates overstate year one substantially.
What is the largest missing cost?
The months before the first booking. Fixed costs run from day one and appear in no projection.
Is it better to start before or into a high season?
Before. Low-demand months are when mistakes are cheap, and every operation makes them in the first quarter.
What makes a plan defensible?
A low-season floor, a route list with competitors named, break-even in flights, and one non-tourism source identified.
Can an intermediary forecast my flying?
No, and a plan depending on that forecast has outsourced its most important assumption.
Let us talk
Operators we bring on evidence current certification, insurance and fleet documentation before receiving a first assignment.